| | Petraeus takes over ‘longest campaign’ FT.com
10/31/2008
By Demetri Sevastopulo in Washington and Jon Boone in Kabul
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General David Petraeus, fresh from his widely praised tenure as US commander in Iraq , on Friday takes the helm at Central Command, a promotion that gives him the added responsibility of Afghanistan.
While the four-star army officer has spent the past 18 months prosecuting the successful “surge” in Iraq , he now faces in Afghanistan what he himself calls “the longest campaign of the long war”.
Afghanistan was so eclipsed by Iraq in 2006 that it was sometimes called the “Forgotten War”. While violence has fallen dramatically in Iraq , the opposite has happened in Afghanistan . So far this year, 254 coalition troops have died in Afghanistan , a figure just shy of the 287 killed in Iraq .
Given his success in Iraq , Gen Petraeus has been asked whether some of the counter-insurgency efforts that worked in Iraq could be imported to Afghanistan . But he has always stressed the “unique” nature of each situation, saying recently that, “some of the concepts used in Iraq are transplantable. Others perhaps are not”.
Experts say the improved situation in Iraq is due to several factors. The combination of the surge, with more emphasis on soldiers protecting neighbourhoods, was complemented by the “Anbar Awakening” and “Sons of Iraq” - predominantly Sunni groups that switched allegiance to the US-led coalition in the fight against al-Qaeda. Finally, the Iraqi security forces over time grew more capable.
In the case of Afghanistan , after seven years of war, the Taliban continue their insurgency, increasingly from safe havens inside Pakistan . Senior Afghan politicians describe the situation in near-apocalyptic terms, often drawing contrasts with the dying days of the communist government left behind after the Soviet retreat in 1989.
“Day by day, the situation in Afghanistan is getting worse,” says Shukria Barakzai, a female MP who, like many other high profile Afghans, has taken her children out of school for fear they will be kidnapped.
”People are fed up with the lack of security and angry that everything that was promised in 2001 has not happened: real democracy, jobs and most of all security”.
While Nato claims that the Taliban are weak, they have gained at a minimum symbolic momentum with a series of brazen attacks on western forces, including recently inflicting the worst death toll on the French military in decades. Provinces bordering Kabul to the south-west and south-east have been declared no go areas, underscoring how seriously the Taliban have followed their policy of trying to ”encircle Kabul ”.
Until now, the Pentagon has been unable to send more forces to Afghanistan because of the deployments in Iraq . Most Nato allies, meanwhile, have been reluctant to send large numbers of additional combat troops.
Barack Obama and John McCain, the Democratic and Republican presidential candidates, have pledged to place a higher priority on Afghanistan than the Bush administration, which only recently launched a high-level review. Admiral Mike Mullen, the chairman of the joint chiefs, and Gen Petraeus are also conducting separate reviews.
”The review does not suggest that the strategy has failed as was the case in Iraq in 2006,” said retired General Jack Keane, one of the architects of the surge in Iraq and close confidant of Gen Petraeus. “Some elements are working, but clearly we need some adjustments. At the end of the day, what we are talking about is a renewal of our commitment.”
All the reviews are expected to take a closer look at Pakistan where Taliban and al-Qaeda extremists have found refuge in safe havens in the lawless border areas. The Central Intelligence Agency has recently stepped missile strikes in the tribal areas, as the Pentagon pushes a reluctant Pakistani military to clamp down on the militants.
While the Pentagon is planning to send more troops to Afghanistan next year, most experts do not envisage a major surge next year, partly because the US still does not have much spare military capacity.
Dan McNeill, a retired general who commanded Nato forces in Afghanistan until June, argues that more international forces are needed until the Afghan security forces are capable of operating independently, which most experts believe will take some time. Both Mr Obama and Mr McCain have called on Europe to send more troops, but Gen McNeill is not optimistic.
“There are not going to be dramatic numbers coming out of the non-US members of Nato simply because they either lack the political context to be able to back it up, or they don’t have the force to do it”.
One senior Nato commander said Gen Petraeus would further “crank the handle of force generation” for the police and the army, even beyond the recently announced plans to accelerate the expansion of the army to 122,000.
Alexander Thier, an Afghanistan expert at the US Institute of Peace who has been consulted by the Petraeus team, says the review must also examine the role of the police.
“The police are a fundamental frontline element of counter-insurgency, both in terms of ... protecting the population which is essential, as well as being the frontline force in the actual counter-insurgency,” says Mr Thier.
“We have not managed over the last seven years anything remotely resembling a competent police service which can carry out frankly either of those roles.”
Another key issue the review is expected to address is whether it would be possible to create an Afghan variant of the “Sons of Iraq” or even reconcile with some of the Taliban.
General David McKiernan, the current Nato commander in Afghanistan , wants to ”empower traditional tribal structures” in an effort to improve security, supporting a push by the British.
Gen McNeill questions whether the traditional arbakai system of arming local villagers is the right approach. He says it traditionally worked in homogenous areas, but believes it would be less successful in the Helmand , the violent province where there is friction between different Pashto tribes.
Mr Thier said the coalition needed to pay more attention to local political dynamics of the tribes, particularly in the areas most impacted by the insurgency. But he cautioned that “whether that means arming tribal militias is a much more difficult question because there is a huge law of unintended consequences … that could more fundamentally undermine the Afghan state”.
Another thorny issue is whether the US should support efforts by Kabul to negotiate with the Taliban. Robert Gates, defence secretary, and Gen Petraeus in recent weeks have suggested that some level of negotiations could be possible to see whether some Taliban could be reconciled. Some US officials have floated the idea of negotiating with Mullah Omar, the Taliban leader, but others are more cautious.
”The chairman believes that, to the degree they can be reconciled to cooperate with coalition forces and work with us toward common security goals, some measure of engagement and dialogue with insurgent elements may prove viable,” said Captain John Kirby, spokesman for Adm Mullen. “It is too early at this point to know exactly with whom or exactly when that sort of engagement should occur.”
Gen Keane says one of the key questions will be whether the US can get some of the tribal factions to side with the coalition, but he says he is “not sure the Taliban are ready to deal while they hold the cards”.
Ultimately, one of the most difficult issues for Gen Petraeus is going to be dealing with the corruption in the central government that most experts believe is hampering progress in the country.
“It is not that the Taliban are so incredibly powerful, or even incredibly attractive to the population,” said Mr Thier. It is just that the government has failed to make itself into a compelling alternative that people would be willing to risk their lives to counter the insurgency.”
Ashraf Haidari, political counsellor at the Afghan embassy in Washington, says Kabul hopes the reviews will spark “more global engagement to address trans-national security threats, such as drugs and terrorism, which are not limited to Afghanistan, as well as overcoming the problems that face the international community in Afghanistan such as the lack of strategic coordination among them and with the Afghan government.”
Mr Haidari points out that the international community still has not fully responded to a call from Ban Ki-moon, the secretary general of the United Nations, to fund the body’s expanded mission in Afghanistan .
While US and Nato military commanders have criticised the level of the corruption in Afghanistan , Afghan politicians also raised their own concerns about the lack of international coordination. Ms Barakzai also complains that after seven years the international community has failed to coordinate the efforts of different countries, aid agencies and military commands.
”There are too many cooks in the kitchen, and they not following the same recipe, let alone the right one.”
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