| | Abdullah tears up Afghan script FT.com
11/01/2009
By Matthew Green in Kabul
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The key question facing western and Afghan officials on Sunday night was whether Abdullah Abdullah’s decision to withdraw from the second round of the election presaged further turmoil or foreshadowed a power-sharing deal with his rival, President Hamid Karzai.
In public the sides have played down expectations that a deal could be imminent amid reports that attempts to bring both together in recent days frequently broke down. Mr Abdullah’s conciliatory tone has kindled hopes that the door might be open to compromise, perhaps before the second round is due to take place this Saturday.
Western diplomats were visibly relieved last month after they pressed Mr Karzai to accept the results of a fraud inquiry that deprived him of almost a third of his votes in the presidential elections.
By persuading him to accept the need for a second round, they hoped to clear the taint of fraud and deliver a government with enough legitimacy to be a credible partner in the fight against a broadening Taliban insurgency.
Mr Abdullah appeared to have torn up that script on Sunday by declaring he would not participate in the run-off because he feared a repeat of widespread vote-fixing. Yet analysts say Mr Abdullah has left open the possibility of a political deal that can keep stability, even at the expense of democracy.
Speaking of his “pain” at his decision, Mr Abdullah told a tent filled with supporters in Kabul that he hoped his decision would “give the people of Afghanistan a chance to move on”. He confined his criticism to the election authorities rather than Mr Karzai.
“These guys are ready to negotiate,” said Haroun Mir, director of the Afghanistan Centre for Research and Policy Studies. “The compromise is on the table, it’s just that they both want to bargain from a position of strength.”
Politicians in the US and Europe have sought to justify the mounting death toll among the 100,000 foreign troops in Afghanistan by pointing to the country’s democratic progress and insisting on respect for electoral procedure, in part to placate audiences at home.
Afghan opinion formers have long argued that a post-election compromise will be needed to pacify powerful ex-guerrilla leaders who represent a delicate mix of ethnic and regional interests, regardless of what happens at the ballot box.
Such a compromise has been discussed by various opposition politicians, UN officials and diplomats since just after the August 20 polls when it became apparent that rigging was so widespread that the process would lack legitimacy.
Western powers have emphasised the need for Afghanistan to stick to the letter of the electoral process, backing a weeks-long recount undertaken by UN-appointed investigators and accepting a second round in spite of the risks posed by the approaching winter and Taliban attacks.
Behind the scenes, a parallel political process has been unfolding as Afghan leaders have sought, in fits and starts, to broker a deal.
The obstacles are many. Few Afghans believed Mr Abdullah ever had a serious chance of being president, in part due to his association with the ethnic Tajik minority in a country where the Pashtun community has traditionally held power at the centre. By forcing a second round, he has strengthened his hand in negotiations.
At the same time Mr Karzai has shown little inclination to compromise with Mr Abdullah, who once served him as foreign minister. The president’s insistence that he won in the first round has strained his relations with western allies, reducing their leverage.
The task is complicated by the need to balance the demands of an array of power-brokers who wield influence over both candidates. Diplomats hope the two men will be able to reach some form of accommodation that will enable their supporters – and the constituencies they represent – to mount a united front against the Taliban.
“Karzai knows that he can’t run the country without the support of Abdullah,” said an international official. “They are still leaving the door open for discussions.”
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