| | Scenarios: Where is battle between Pakistan and Taliban headed? Reuters
09/03/2010
By Michael Georgy
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The struggle between Pakistan and militants has come under scrutiny again after U.S. charges against the Pakistani Taliban leader and renewed violence as the country struggles to cope with debilitating floods.
Here is how the battle between the government and al Qaeda-linked Sunni Pakistani Taliban insurgents may unfold.
NO CHANGES IN STRATEGY
The dynamics of the battle won't change, with the army mounting more offensives and the Taliban hitting back.
The military has said it scored major gains with a series of offensives over the last year that destroyed Taliban bases in strongholds in the northwest and killed many fighters.
It's hard to get independent confirmation of official death tolls, since militants often melt away before and during offensives to set up new strongholds, or plot their return.
Despite unprecedented crackdowns, the Taliban manage to carry out suicide bombings and attacks on police, security forces and soldiers, sometimes on high-profile military targets. The Taliban claimed responsibility for bombings in Lahore on Wednesday that killed at least 33 people and wounded 171. Militants may be encouraged to step up attacks because the government and military are preoccupied with flood relief efforts. There is the possibility of attacks on aid workers.
MORE TALIBAN ATTACKS OVERSEAS
U.S. prosecutors charged Pakistan Taliban leader Hakimullah Mehsud in the plot that killed seven CIA employees at an American base in Afghanistan last December.
Mehsud, believed to be hiding in the tribal areas of Pakistan, was charged with conspiracy to kill Americans overseas and conspiracy to use a weapon of mass destruction.
This suggests Pakistan's Taliban, which has for years focused on toppling the U.S.-backed government, has become more ambitious and extended its reach overseas.
Aside from the highly sophisticated operation against the CIA agents involving a Jordanian double agent, Pakistan's Taliban claimed responsibility for the bomb plot in New York's Times Square in May. It failed but raised alarm bells nonetheless.
The big question for Western intelligence agencies will be can the Pakistani Taliban stage major attacks in the United States and Europe?
It may have the determination to, but much will depend on whether it has the finances and connections to global militant groups. It may need deep cooperation with networks like al Qaeda with a track record of spectacular attacks.
THE US PUTS MORE PRESSURE ON PAKISTAN
Islamabad is already under immense U.S. pressure to eliminate Afghan Taliban militants who operate from sanctuaries on the Pakistan side of the border and cross to Afghanistan to attack American-led NATO troops. Now that Mehsud's profile has been raised by the U.S. charges, the U.S. may push Pakistan to fight the Afghan Taliban and the Pakistani Taliban simultaneously.
Pakistan's government would almost certainly resist those demands and argue that the army is already stretched, especially since it has taken a lead role in providing relief to flood victims. The government is engaged in damage control after coming under fire for its inadequate response to the catastrophe and it has to deal with the staggering economic costs of the floods and victims who will surely demand massive compensation.
(Editing by Nick Macfie)
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