The country's many complicated ethnic divisions hark way back to the founding of the Afghan state by a Pashtun in 1747. Today, leaders' egos, rivalries and clan and ethnic interests survive and could lead to new clashes.

KABUL - After two and a half tortured decades -- Soviet invasion, civil war, Taliban rule, a hunt for members of Al-Qaida and a war to oust the Taliban -- Afghanistan is finally getting a glimpse of what representative national rule will look like.

The results of elections held in September are now in. The winners are the same broad and often bickering array of forces, largely inspired by Islam and often led by men who were called warlords, who fought the Soviets in the 1980s, with a sprinkling of former Communists thrown in.

Their large egos, divisions, rivalries and clan and ethnic interests survive and promise new clashes. But this time the hope is that the quarrels can be contained in the halls of Afghanistan's first nationally elected legislature, which is scheduled to convene next Sunday, rather than spilling onto the battlefield in yet another round of civil war.

Still, President Hamid Karzai will have his work cut out for him as broker in chief.

There are several ways to think about the rifts within this Parliament. If one were to look for a principal division, it would be territorial, roughly between north and south -- with the half a dozen ethnicities of the center and the north more or less united in competition against the largest single ethnic group, the Pashtuns, in the south and east.

If there is a primary ideological division, it is between those who fought the Soviets and those who collaborated with them or sat out that war in exile.

Law unto themselves

Many commanders who resisted the Soviets and later the Taliban took on the roles of warlords in their districts, with their militias exerting control in the absence of a strong central government. Many amassed wealth and power virtually unchecked, as smuggling and poppy cultivation flourished. Now, many militias have been disarmed, with their leaders put in offices like police chief or governor.

While their inclusion in Parliament now offers a chance to integrate in a system based on central authority, it also poses a challenge to that system: One big point of contention is expected to involve efforts to call some commanders to account for past war crimes, and in some areas armed groups continue to sow fear.

A third division is between those formally allied with Karzai and those in opposition. There will also be competition among local districts for favors, power and funds. There are already demands for roads, schools and clinics and calls for help for farmers willing to change how they use their land -- a crucial factor in eradicating the cultivation of opium poppies.

The ethnic division goes back to the founding of the Afghan state by a Pashtun in 1747. Except for two turbulent periods, Pashtuns have ruled. The Taliban was a predominantly Pashtun movement, and although it had Pashtun enemies, too, it was battling primarily Hazara, Uzbek and Tajik forces in the north when the United States helped overthrow it in 2001. Now, those tribes want a share of central power.

In fact, the main opposition to Karzai is expected to center around three colorful characters: Muhammad Yunous Qanooni, a Tajik; Muhammad Mohaqeq, a Hazara Shiite, and Gen. Abdul Rashid Dostum, who did not run for Parliament but is the unrivalled leader of the Uzbeks and Turkmens and is expected to influence their representatives.

Hard bargaining ahead

Those three command an estimated 60 to 80 seats in the 249-member lower house.

They are expected to stand together on matters involving the amount of services and representation their minorities get.

Karzai's fellow Pashtuns number 118, nearly half the house. But they are a varied group. Political analysts say that Karzai's true loyalists hold only about 65 seats.

The largest grouping is the 100 free agents aligned neither with Karzai nor the opposition. They include some 20 ex-Communists, as well as tribal and religious leaders, businessmen and many of the 68 women elected as representatives. For his economic agenda, Karzai may have to bargain hard with them as individuals.

If ethnicity is not considered, the politics can be divided between parties and people who date to the anti-Soviet resistance and represent almost half of the house and those who do not. This split will matter on issues of religion and culture -- since many resistance members are conservative Islamists -- and prosecution of war crimes.

Where are the likeliest bargains to be made? Yet another pattern comes to mind: the old habit of forming alliances of convenience, on the basis of who can offer the best deal, or pay the highest bribe, on any given day. Already rumors are swirling about large sums of money being offered in the race for speaker of the Parliament.